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BusinessPhD13 m+160 XP
Financial modeling: building a simple forecast that guides decisions
Revenue projections, scenario planning & the metrics operators actually need to track
Vanity metrics (followers, page views, app downloads) feel good and tell you nothing. Operators track metrics that connect directly to decisions. The minimum viable stack: Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) and its growth rate, Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) by channel, Customer Lifetime Value (LTV), LTV:CAC ratio (must be > 3:1), churn rate, and gross margin. Every other metric is downstream of these. If you can't explain how a metric connects to one of these six, you probably don't need to track it.
Key Points
- ▸MRR growth rate > MRR absolute value
- ▸LTV:CAC > 3:1 is the minimum viable unit economics
- ▸Churn is the silent killer — track weekly, not monthly
- ▸Gross margin determines how much you can afford to spend on growth