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TradingPhD13 m+170 XP
Risk management: the only strategy that keeps you in the game
Kelly Criterion, drawdown math & the psychology of losses
Ruin is not losing all your money — ruin is drawdown so severe that psychological recovery becomes impossible. Most traders blow up not because their edge is negative but because their position sizing is wrong. The Kelly Criterion gives the mathematically optimal bet size: f = (bp - q) / b, where b is the odds received, p is the probability of winning, and q is the probability of losing. Most professional traders use half-Kelly to account for edge uncertainty.
Key Points
- ▸Kelly formula: f* = (bp - q) / b
- ▸Half-Kelly is the practical standard
- ▸A 50% drawdown requires a 100% return to recover
- ▸Max drawdown tolerance determines max position size